PUC1
Load forecast in distribution network
1. Description of the Use Case
1.1. Name of the Use Case
| ID | Area /Domain(s)/Zone(s) | Name of the Use Case |
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| 1 | Smart Grid / Distribution / Operation, | PUC1 |
1.2. Version Management
| Version No. | Date | Name of author(s) | Changes | Approval status |
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| 1.0 | 2020-12-04T00:00:00 | Luis Viguer, | N/A | Approved |
1.3. Scope and Objectives of Use Case
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| Scope | Based on historical records, current load measures and weather forecast, it will be provided the total load forecast (consumption models) at a substation, primary or secondary, located at Kefalonia and Attica regions. |
| Objective(s) | Provide input data to DSO in order to assess voltage levels and power flows at distribution network |
| Related business case(s) | PUC12 |
1.4. Narrative of Use Case
Short description
Placed within the abovementioned BUCs, PUC1 describes how the forecast provider extracts, transforms and loads (ETL) the data needed by the DSO to assess voltage levels and power flows. It is composed by four Secondary Use Cases (scenarios):
- Get measurement form substation
- Get meteo forecast
- Generation of load forecast
- KPI calculation for load forecast
Complete description
This PUC makes reference to the forecasting modules focused on the operation of the DSO and the distribution network. In order to increase the performance of these modules, data requests to external systems will be sent. Finally, the results of the algorithms will be available to external actors/applications.
Type of considered forecasts:
• Load Forecast: Forecast of total demand at a substation (primary or secondary).
The time-granularity/horizon of the forecast can be:
• Very short-term: 1h (5 or 15 min steps),
• Short-term: 24-48 h (15min-1hour step),
• Medium-term: 48h-10days (1-hour step)
The PUC will deepen in the following steps that are necessary to forecast the total demand at a substation:
- Forecast Provider retrieves current load from substation.
- Forecast Provider asks for meteo forecast to Weather Forecast.
- Forecast Provider corrects wrong/missing data, using an algorithm for anomalies detection.
- Forecast Provider generates a mathematical model for load, using the historical data, and it applies the current load to the mathematical model, getting the load forecast.
- Forecast Provider sends the forecasts to DSO.
- DSO sends the forecasts to Coordinet platform (actors who need it for their activities).
Besides, KPIs related to accuracy of prediction will be calculated in order to get the efficacy of the forecast done.
Within the related business use cases, this primary use case, jointly with PUC2 (RES forecast in DN), focuses on the BUCs’ first step from DSO side:
More precisely, PUC1 is divided into four secondary use cases also referred to as scenarios:
• SUC 1.1 – Get measurement from substation: The Forecast Provider asks for current load to the Substation, which returns that measure.
• SUC 1.2 – Get meteo forecast: The Forecast Provider asks for the weather prediction to the Weather Forecast Provider, an external server which does not belong to Coordinet ecosystem. The request contains the moment of time to be considered, such as prediction for 1 hour by or 24 hours by. The response contains the weather forecasting for that moment.
• SUC1.3 – Generation of load forecast: After correcting wrong/missing data, the Forecast Provider generates a model of load for a period of time, using weather forecast and historical data related to load. Once this model is prepared, the Forecast Provider uses the current measurement to generate its prediction.
• SUC1.4 – KPI calculation for load forecast: The KPIs are calculated in order to determine if the prediction is good enough. This calculation is done considering the load prediction and the real load.
| ID | Name | Description | Reference to mentioned use case objectives |
|---|
| KPI_24 | Accuracy of load forecast calculated 1 hour in advance | This indicator measures the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of the load forecast in distribution system. | N/A, |
1.6. Use case conditions
| Relation to other use cases |
|---|
|
| Level of depth |
| Prioritisation |
| Mandatory |
| Generic, regional or national relation |
| Generic |
| Nature of the use cases |
| Technical |
| Further keywords for classification |
| Smart Grid, Distribution Network, DSO, demand/load forecast |
2. Diagrams of Use Case
3. Technical Details
3.1. Actors
| Actor Name | Actor Type | Actor Description | Further information specific to this Use Case |
|---|
| Forecast provider | Process | Process in charge of generating load forecasting. | |
| DSO (Distribution System Operator) | System operator | System operator in charge of controlling local voltage and power flows in DN. | |
| Coordinet platform | IT platform | It receives the load forecast from DSO and shares it (at primary substation level) with the TSO. | |
| Substation | Facility | Primary or secondary electrical substation where current load data is gathered. | |
| Weather forecasting provider | Service | External service which receives requests of weather prediction for a moment and returns it. | |
3.2. References
4. Step by Step Analysis of Use Case
4.1. Overview of Scenarios
| No. | Scenario Name | Scenario Description | Primary Actor | Triggering Event | Pre-Condition | Post-Condition |
|---|
| 1 | Get measurement from substation | See complete description | | Get measurement from substation | | |
| 2 | None | See complete description | | None | | |
| 3 | None | See complete description | | None | | |
| 4 | None | See complete description | | None | | |
Notes
4.2. Steps – Scenarios
| Scenario Name: |
|---|
| Get measurement from substation |
| Step No. | Event. | Name of Process/ Activity | Description of Process/ Activity. | Service | Information Producer (Actor) | Information Receiver (Actor) | Information Exchanged | Requirements, R-ID |
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| Step No. | Event. | Name of Process/ Activity | Description of Process/ Activity. | Service | Information Producer (Actor) | Information Receiver (Actor) | Information Exchanged | Requirements, R-ID |
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| Step No. | Event. | Name of Process/ Activity | Description of Process/ Activity. | Service | Information Producer (Actor) | Information Receiver (Actor) | Information Exchanged | Requirements, R-ID |
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| Step No. | Event. | Name of Process/ Activity | Description of Process/ Activity. | Service | Information Producer (Actor) | Information Receiver (Actor) | Information Exchanged | Requirements, R-ID |
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| Information exchanged ID | Name of Information | Description of Information Exchanged | Requirement |
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6. Requirements (optional)
| Category Identifier | Name | Description | mRID |
|---|
| Req_ID | Req_Name | ‘Load forecast in distribution network’ | |
| Identifier | Name | Description | mRID |
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| IE_1 | Substation measure | Current load at the substation [KVA] | IE_1 |
| IE_2 | Weather prediction | Weather forecasting values: Temperature [oC], relative humidity [%], atmospheric pressure [mbar], cloud index [%], wind speed [m/s], wind direction[degrees], etc. | IE_2 |
| IE_3 | Load prediction | Load Forecast generated by the Forecast Provider [KVA] | IE_1, IE_2 |
| IE_4 | KPIs calculation | Calculation of KPIs, done when the moment of the prediction is reached: [KPI_24] and [KPI_25] | IE_3 |
7. Common Terms and Definitions
| Key | Value | Refers to Section |
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