elering-15

Predict flexibility availability

1. Description of the Use Case

1.1. Name of the Use Case

IDArea /Domain(s)/Zone(s)Name of the Use Case
1Market for flexibilities,elering-15

1.2. Version Management

Version No.DateName of author(s)ChangesApproval status
12018-05-08T00:00:00
22018-05-08T00:00:00Mitchell Curtis (Upside), Graham Oakes (Upside),First Draft
32018-07-04T00:00:00Ricardo Jover (EDF), Eric Suignard (EDF),
42018-07-10T00:00:00Ricardo Jover (EDF), Eric Suignard (EDF),Changes from Mitchell Curtis
52018-08-02T00:00:00Eric Suignard (EDF),
62018-09-21T00:00:00Eric Suignard (EDF),Remarks from Innogy.
72018-10-04T00:00:00Eric Suignard (EDF),Version post WP5&9 physical meeting in Tallinn
82018-10-17T00:00:00Eric Suignard (EDF),Version reviewed by WP5&9 partners
92019-05-07T00:00:00Eric Suignard (EDF),WP6-7-8 demos alignment and miscellaneous changes
102019-06-05T00:00:00Ricardo Jover (EDF), Eric Suignard (EDF),Changes following WP5&9 workshop in Chatou
112020-06-16T00:00:00Eric Suignard (EDF),innogy’s and Elering’s review

1.3. Scope and Objectives of Use Case

ScopeThe scope of this use case is the prediction of flexibility product availability.
Objective(s)The objective of this use case is to detail how the prediction of flexibility product availability is undertaken.
Related business case(s)

1.4. Narrative of Use Case

Short description

This use case describes how the prediction of flexibility availability is undertaken. Flexibility products are described as either slow (e.g. Manual Frequency Restoration Reserve (mFRR) and the UK Short Term Operating Reserve (STOR)) or semi-fast (e.g. Automatic Frequency Restoration Reserve (aFRR)) or fast (e.g. Frequency Containment Reserves (FCR) and Fast Frequency Response (FFR)) and can provide services for balancing and congestion management at local and national levels for TSOs and DSOs.
The assessment of flexibility availability in this use case is split into three timeframes:

  • Investment planning (3+ years ahead) aims to understand future availability and if the predictions highlight insufficient capacity that needs addressing.
  • Operation planning (days to years ahead) aims to predict the short, medium and long term availability of flexible products that have committed to provide service.
  • Real time Planning (Intraday operation) aims to predict the current availability of flexible products for balancing and congestion management requirements for that day. This time frame is covered by DER-SCADA, flexibility bidding and flexibility activation SUCs. It relates to understand the real time flexibility availability which could be based on forecasting using historical data on how assets have performed. For example, the flexibility bidding SUC could say that today 10MW had been awarded for usage, the flexibility activation SUC could identify that, when called on, only 9MW responded. This information would be fed into the prediction forecaster, so that in the future it could tell the flexibility bidding SUC that, if it wants 10MW, then it should get 11MW as it is predicted that 10% will not respond.

Complete description

1.5. Key Performance Indicatiors (KPI)

IDNameDescriptionReference to mentioned use case objectives

1.6. Use case conditions

Assumptions
Operational Planning timeframe requires data on the amount and type of flexibility that has been acquired
Prerequisites
Flexibility products have been predefined and are being used

1.7. Further information to the use case for classification/mapping

Relation to other use cases
Level of depth
Prioritisation
Generic, regional or national relation
Nature of the use cases
SUC
Further keywords for classification

1.8. General remarks

General remarks

2. Diagrams of Use Case

Predict flexibility availability - overview Predict flexibility availability - scenarios flowchart

3. Technical Details

3.1. Actors

Actor NameActor TypeActor DescriptionFurther information specific to this Use Case
Data Exchange PlatformSystemData exchange platform (DEP) is a communication platform the basic functionality of which is to secure data transfer (routing) from data providers (e.g. data hubs, flexibility service providers, TSOs, DSOs) to the data users (e.g. TSOs, DSOs, consumers, suppliers, energy service providers). DEP stores data related to its services (e.g. cryptographic hash of the data requested). The DEP does not store core energy data (e.g. meter data, grid data, market data) while these data can be stored by data hubs. Several DEPs may exist in different countries and inside one country.
Distribution System Operator (DS_O)BusinessElaborate network development plan (including defining system needs for distribution)
Ensure a transparent and non-discriminatory access to the distribution network for each user
Operate the distribution grid over a specific region in a secure, reliable and efficient way
Optimize system operation distribution grid from planning to real-time, using available levers (grid expansion, flexibility activation,…)
Assess network status of the distribution grid and broadcast selected information of the network status to eligible actors (e.g. aggregators, other system operators)
Support the Transmission System Operator in carrying out its responsibilities (including load shedding) and coordinate measures if necessary
Transmission System Operator (TS_O)BusinessElaborate network development plan (including defining system needs for transmission)
Ensure a transparent and non-discriminatory access to the transmission network for each user
Operate the transmission grid over a specific region in a secure, reliable and efficient way
Secure and manage in real time the physical generation-consumption balance on a geographical perimeter, including ensuring the frequency control service
Optimize transmission system operation from planning to real-time, using available levers (grid expansion, flexibility activation,…)
Assess network status of the transmission grid and broadcast selected information of the network status to eligible actors (e.g. aggregators, other system operators)
Provide data to the interconnection capacity market operator for the management of cross border transactions
In critical situations, implement dedicated actions and deliver alerts during stress events
If necessary, implement emergency measures (e.g. system defence plan) including load shedding
System OperatorBusinessSystem Operator means a natural or legal person responsible for operating, ensuring the maintenance of and, if necessary, developing the system in a given area and, where applicable, its interconnections with other systems, and for ensuring the long-term ability of the system to meet reasonable demands for the distribution or transmission of electricity (cf. ENTSOE-EFET-ebIX harmonized role model 2019).
Can be:
  • A Transmission System Operator (cf. definition in T3.3 deliverable), for frequency control, congestion management and voltage control on transmission network,
  • A Distribution System Operator (cf. definition in T3.3 deliverable), for congestion management and voltage control on distribution network.

NB: In some countries (e.g. Germany and Poland), the high voltage network is part of the distribution grid and in other countries (e. g. France and Italy) the high voltage network is part of the transmission grid.

A System Operator can be:
  • A Primary System Operator,
  • A Secondary System Operator.
Flexibility PlatformSystemFlexibility Platform (FP) for System Operators and Flexibility Service Providers that enables the trading of different flexibility products and services. A FP is operated by a Market Operator.

Available to System Operators and Flexibility Services Providers. It is used to support the prequalification, the bidding, the activation and the verification processes, ensuring coordination between activities undertaken by several operators using the same flexible resources. Several national and regional FPs may exist.
Flexibility Service ProviderBusinessCan be a Distribution Network Flexibility Provider or a Transmission Network Flexibility Provider (cf. definitions in T3.3 deliverable).
Similar to Flexibility Aggregator. Can be both aggregator and individual consumer/generator. Type of Energy Service Provider.
DEP OperatorBusinessData exchange platform operator owns and operates a communication system which basic functionality is data transfer.

3.2. References

No.References TypeReferenceStatusImpact on Use CaseOrganistaor / OrganisationLink

4. Step by Step Analysis of Use Case

4.1. Overview of Scenarios

No.Scenario NameScenario DescriptionPrimary ActorTriggering EventPre-ConditionPost-Condition
1TSO Predicting Flexibility Availability for Investment Planning
2DSO Predicting Flexibility Availability for Investment Planning
3System Operator Predicting Flexibility Availability for Operational PlanningThe System Operator can be a TSO or a DSO.
4System Operator Predicting Flexibility Availability for Real Time PlanningThe System Operator can be a TSO (imbalance) or a DSO (congestions).

Notes

4.2. Steps – Scenarios

Scenario Name:
TSO Predicting Flexibility Availability for Investment Planning
Step No.Event.Name of Process/ ActivityDescription of Process/ Activity.ServiceInformation Producer (Actor)Information Receiver (Actor)Information ExchangedRequirements, R-ID
1.1Assess the levels of expected generation and intermittent electricity supplyAssessment on transmission network.
Example for intermittent electricity supply: renewables.
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1.2Assess the levels of expected inflexible and flexible electricity demandAssessment on transmission network.
Example for inflexible electricity demand: lights.
Example for flexible electricity demand: electric vehicle charging.
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1.3Compare supply and demand assessments across the country and for individual areasThere should be sufficient capacity and flexibility, in order to maintain agreed KPI’s (e.g. having a 10% reserve margin)e1faae3f-9109-40ca-9468-129b57e584e98fd0604e-3f8d-497b-8b6c-65e519cc1175 a8e209b8-668f-4618-94f6-45cfec8e4577 9f08745f-29a2-4fad-86ae-8a7b6f9a3ab8
1.4Signal to the market with appropriate mechanisms the national and local requirementsExamples of a national signal: flexibility market, demanding futures on flexibility
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceName=National and local requirements
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceDescription=
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1.5Forward the national and local requirements
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceName=National and local requirements
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceDescription=
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1.6Register flexibility needsNational and local requirements to register:
- Amount of firm electricity supply required
- Amount of intermittent electricity supply required
- Amount of fast (seconds response rate) flexibility product required
- Amount of slow (minutes response rate) flexibility product required
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Scenario Name:
DSO Predicting Flexibility Availability for Investment Planning
Step No.Event.Name of Process/ ActivityDescription of Process/ Activity.ServiceInformation Producer (Actor)Information Receiver (Actor)Information ExchangedRequirements, R-ID
2.1Assess the levels of expected generation connected to the distribution grid, inflexible and flexible electricity demand across all areas of its distribution networkAssessment on distribution network.
Example for inflexible electricity demand: lights.
Example for flexible electricity demand: electric vehicle charging.
Examples of areas of distribution network: street, town, region.
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2.2Assess the levels of expected distributed generation across all areas of its distribution networkAssessment on distribution network.
Example for expected distributed generation: solar.
Examples of areas of distribution network: street, town, region.
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2.3Use the demand and distributed generation assessment to understand which areas could utilise flexible electricity demand to reduce the need for network reinforcementExample for flexible electricity demand: electric vehicle chargingb8c224b3-3a8c-44b9-8eb8-8d38f96be10f8fd0604e-3f8d-497b-8b6c-65e519cc1175 9f08745f-29a2-4fad-86ae-8a7b6f9a3ab8 a8e209b8-668f-4618-94f6-45cfec8e4577
2.4Signal to the market with appropriate mechanisms the requirementsExample for signal: DSO flexibility calls for tenders
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceName=Local requirements
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceDescription=
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2.5Forward local requirements
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceName=Local requirements
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceDescription=
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2.6Register flexibility needsRequirements to register for network reinforcement:
- Amount of reinforcement required that cannot be addressed with flexibility
- Amount of fast (seconds response rate) flexibility product required
- Amount of slow (minutes response rate) flexibility product required
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Scenario Name:
System Operator Predicting Flexibility Availability for Operational Planning
Step No.Event.Name of Process/ ActivityDescription of Process/ Activity.ServiceInformation Producer (Actor)Information Receiver (Actor)Information ExchangedRequirements, R-ID
3.1Publish the results of prequalification with additional restrictions information
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceName=Prequalification results
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceDescription=
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3.2Forward prequalification results
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceName=Prequalification results
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceDescription=
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3.3Register flexibility needs908bfa7a-c616-4b2b-a712-04aac115429b405bf996-c666-4b6e-ae81-be6dc03e3eb5 9553a4c6-df9f-4224-a64e-335c14565f42
3.4Predict fast and slow flexibility product availability for the short-term periodBased on the flexibility energy that has been awarded to providers. The flexibility energy is adjusted using forecasting models of actual delivery by the providers and historical data
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceName=Flexibility Need
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceDescription=
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3.5Predict fast and slow flexibility product availability for the medium-term periodBased on the flexibility capacity that has been awarded.
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceName=Flexibility Need
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceDescription=
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3.6Predict fast and slow flexibility product availability for the long-term periodBased on the flexibility capacity that has been already awarded and still to be awarded based on their acquisition mechanisms (e.g. capacity market)
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceName=Flexibility Need
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceDescription=
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3.7Forward flexibility needs
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceName=Flexibility Need
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceDescription=
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Scenario Name:
System Operator Predicting Flexibility Availability for Real Time Planning
Step No.Event.Name of Process/ ActivityDescription of Process/ Activity.ServiceInformation Producer (Actor)Information Receiver (Actor)Information ExchangedRequirements, R-ID
4.1Send large FSPs real time signals about their current and near-term ability to provide flexibilityFor large producers (FSPs): some data are already exchanged in real time between large producer’s SCADA and network operator’s SCADA.
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceName=Flexibility Potential
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceDescription=
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4.2Send small FSPs real time signals about their current and near-term ability to provide flexibilityFor FSPs who do not have a SCADA to exchange data directly with Network Operators. We will consider that data exchanges between small FSPs and system/network operators will be done in real time via Data Exchange Platforms.
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceName=Flexibility Potential
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceDescription=
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4.3Forward small FSPs real time signals
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceName=Flexibility Potential
Modsarus Use Case::InstanceDescription=
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4.4Receive the flexibility predictions63eb2d86-aa08-444e-88dc-51f7f64e714e9553a4c6-df9f-4224-a64e-335c14565f42 9f08745f-29a2-4fad-86ae-8a7b6f9a3ab8 405bf996-c666-4b6e-ae81-be6dc03e3eb5 11c3359a-b4bb-40d3-a055-6296bf5860a7
4.5For small FSPs that cannot provide real time signals, predict their current and near-term ability to provide flexibility availabilityFor FSPs that cannot offer real time signals.
Flexibility availability is based on historical information and prediction parameters (e.g. weather).
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4.6Combine the flexibility predictionsDone to understand availability over the day for both slow and fast flexibility products.63eb2d86-aa08-444e-88dc-51f7f64e714e9553a4c6-df9f-4224-a64e-335c14565f42 9f08745f-29a2-4fad-86ae-8a7b6f9a3ab8 405bf996-c666-4b6e-ae81-be6dc03e3eb5 11c3359a-b4bb-40d3-a055-6296bf5860a7

5. Information Exchanged

Information exchanged IDName of InformationDescription of Information ExchangedRequirement
a60e2b25-b378-4f14-9755-26f4a9b5ea69Flexibility Need—-
ec556f1b-8608-4de1-ab7c-a7e614f2bc37Flexibility Potential—-

6. Requirements (optional)

Category IdentifierNameDescriptionmRID
Cat1Task 5.3Requirements integrated from Task 5.3.1880e39c-7084-4785-8c02-297057abe312
IdentifierNameDescriptionmRID
Req1FPRED-REQ1Collection of data for prediction (long term - years)8fd0604e-3f8d-497b-8b6c-65e519cc1175
Req2FPRED-REQ2Computation of predictions (long term - years)a8e209b8-668f-4618-94f6-45cfec8e4577
Req3FPRED-REQ6Computation of predictions (long term - intraday operation)9f08745f-29a2-4fad-86ae-8a7b6f9a3ab8
Req4FPRED-REQ3Collection of data for prediction (medium-term - days to years ahead)405bf996-c666-4b6e-ae81-be6dc03e3eb5
Req5FPRED-REQ4Computation of predictions ( medium-term - days to years ahead )9553a4c6-df9f-4224-a64e-335c14565f42
Req6FPRED-REQ5Collection of data for prediction (short term - intraday operation)11c3359a-b4bb-40d3-a055-6296bf5860a7

7. Common Terms and Definitions

8. Custom Information (optional)

KeyValueRefers to Section